How much longer till???

[Hilltop]

Like so many in agriculture today I am sure that every day many of us wonder when things will turn for the better especially in the cattle industry??

I am thinking or maybe hoping that it will be sooner than later and I believe that others are thinking this as we have had many many calls and replys to our heifers we had advertised and people want them for market price.

Is it a bad attitude to send them for slaughter before we sell for market price and let the speculaters maybe make all the cash????
I know that times are tough for everyone but it does bug us when people get on the phone and say they dont want to spend more than market price or say they thought we would sell for market price without actually seeing the females!!

I like to find a deal myself but have never been one to openly tell the seller I am only willing to pay a certain amount. If they believe that their product is worth X amount of dollars and we like it we would purchase and if we think it is not worth that we would simply but nicely tell them we are not interested at this time.

Just curious what people 'THINK" the near future holds and if they have had the same experiences of if they are the speculaters trying to make a little extra cash???

 

[carl s.]

You start your post off with a false assumption, that things are bad as you seem to think they are.  Just try buying bred cows in Texas right now and you’ll wonder why there’s so much demand for them until you see that the extremely high calf prices are justifying it.

You’ve forgotten the difference between pets and cattle.  Unless you give people a reason to pay more for your cattle (and no, I worked hard and put a lot of money into them isn’t a reason) they won’t pay more for them.

 

[Hilltop]

Its great to see cow prices going up!! What are breds bringing in your area? Location is probably the key right now?
We have heard prices are up in some areas here but unless some areas in western Canada get a lot of moisture people will not pay 120 and up for a bale of hay when they sell commercial calves at $500.
We have data on our heifers (weaning, yearling and present weights) but the people who call really do not even want to hear this information.
I am no expert at PR or marketing but maybe we are not doing a good enough job?

 

[carl s.]

Cow traders don't typically give a damn about anything but weight/frame, breeding status, color, and pregnancy status.

You seem to be in a no mans land where you think your cattle are too good for commercial but they aren't good enough to get the attention of seedstock and show folks.  To be frank, that's not an uncommon predicament for a Shorthorn breeder to be in.

 

[redwingfarm]

It looks to me that the cattle market is on the way up, how far it will go is anybodys guess, but look at the signs:  $1.00 fats, and possibly the biggest/earliest corn crop in the ground in the US, big planting should equal <$3 corn by fall.

As to your dillema on selling cattle at a premium over market, you must remember that to your banker your cattle are worth what they will bring by the pound nothing more until you prove otherwise.

My questions to you are:
1  what are your pedigrees like?  do you have cattle from any of the top ten cow families of the breed??  ie:  T90, myrtle bo, augusta pride, shannon margie  ect??  if not why not?  a nice heifer out of your best cow is ok, but without a name in the pedigree I'M NOT INTERESTED
2  How much premium do you want to make?  I currently get 500-1000 over market price for herd bulls, a little more for heifers
3  I'm not Cates, Razors, Sullivan and I can't expect to get paid the same way they do,  I try to look in the mirror and be realistic when I price something.  $500 over market on a sale is much better in the long run than trying to get $2000 over and be still feeding the calf
4.  If shorties are selling in your area try using what is sellling, and use the shorty plus program to keep them papered, here in Ohio the sim/angus program is hot, hot, hot and we are beginning to go that way in some of our breedings

I am not an expert, just a common cattleman trying to make a buck like you, my ideas are just ideas, good luck on finding what will work for you

 

[Show Heifer]

I realize you are talking "show cattle terms", but, if I recall most of the experts in the "real world cattle" have commented that we are in the "down swing" of the 10 year cattle market, with the high market being a few years ago. That in turns raises the "hobby money" cattle market.
So I guess if you think things were bad before, brace yourself, it (according to the experts) is only going to get worse. But, when the upswing goes, they claim it will be the fastest, highest market in history.  YIPPY!

 

[Hilltop]

The females advertised are from 5/8 to 7/8 Shorthorn and we were just asking 150-200 over market except for a couple from excellent proven families that we wanted a little bit more out of. 500 over market woulfd be awesome. I believe when the grand dam is 17 or 18 and still producing that should speak for itself.
As far as breeding we will continue to breed what we think are good functional cattle. I am sure we will make many more mistakes just like this past year but will not breed only for the name.
My wife and I were talking a few weeks back and said what the heck, we have been doing this for 7 years on the up and down market what is a few more.

Show heifer........ I and a lot more here really hope it does not get any worse!!

 

[GoWyo]

The cattle market is cranking right now with $1.00 fats and $1.30+ 6 and 7 wts.  Everyone is wondering how long it can last.

 

[forcheyhawk]

I bet it will last at least a few years.  There were so many cows that went to slaughter the last few years due to high feed prices and combine that with greater exports and feedlot numbers being down -- I'm no economist here but I would sure think that would make us in line for a nice several year run. 

To the original poster, maybe the answer is that you take a little hit and build some relationships.  We've sold a few cattle for slightly greater than market price to gain a valuable customer down the road.  I know it's sometimes hard to do because you understand the value of your cattle, but word of mouth and satisfied customers is the best marketing tools you could ever have.  Just some ideas.  ;D

 

[JSchroeder]

I went back and read the original post twice because it simply didn't make any sense to me.  You make it sound as if the entire beef industry is in a slump when it would be hard to say something further from the truth.

The general cattle market is booming right now.  $1 fats, relatively cheap corn, low stocking rates, fewer regions impacted by drought than the past few years, etc.  I'm not sure what exactly you think is down about the cattle market right now.

 

[iahogfarmer]

IMO, cattle prices will keep going up. Remember, the size of the U.S. cowherd is at its smallest since the 50's i believe. It wouldn't suprise me if producers start seein $1.10/$1.15 fats as the economy starts getting better and people start consuming more, fueling the demand for more beef. I think the producers who rode out $.80 fats will be rewarded in the end with more profitable days to come.

 

[Will]

Smallest cow herd since 1949.  unless we have a dramatic economic catastrophe the market should stay good for a while.

 

[Hilltop]

Better would be a good word for us as far as the market is but I wonder how many producers north of the 49th would use the term 'BOOMING".
If I made it sound like total slump that is only because I was PO'd this am. People are optimistic about the future but we still have a long way to go.
Yes with the cow numbers down it should only get better but one major strike against us now is the value of the Canadian Dollar against the US greenback.
What are 900lb+ steer and heifers selling for south of the border. One of the market reps here says we may see $2 steer calves in the fall but even if we would see $1.5 would be awesome.

 

[jackpotcattle]

900 lbs hfrs in SD are bringing anywhere from 98 to 107. Steers have almost all been over 100, from what i have seen. In feb. you could buy bred hfrs for 1100 and now pairs are bringing 1700 from what I have heard. Seems like a quick return on investment.
I have also heard speculation of $2 cattle in the fall.

 

[iahogfarmer]

900 lbs hfrs in SD are bringing anywhere from 98 to 107. Steers have almost all been over 100, from what i have seen. In feb. you could buy bred hfrs for 1100 and now pairs are bringing 1700 from what I have heard. Seems like a quick return on investment.
I have also heard speculation of $2 cattle in the fall.

If the market hits $2 cattle this fall i may eat my hat  <cowboy>

 

[hamburgman]

Smallest cow herd since 1949.  unless we have a dramatic economic catastrophe the market should stay good for a while.

Remember its not herd size it's pounds that really matter, the swine industry goes through this all the time.  Cut back on sows end up with more pigs overall, and finisher weights increase also, but I will agree everything does look promising.