Duke of Dublin EPD's

[librarian]

Doing my homework and was wondering why these EPD's are restricted?

 

[aj]

Key rice st. Interesting.

 

[Doc]

I would venture to guess that it has something to do with the owner of the bull not being a WHR member. Which I find ridiculous because to my knowledge Irish Drovers doesn't exist anymore and the bull has been dead for over 20 years. It would be interesting to hear the ASA reason.

 

[mark tenenbaum]

I would venture to guess that it has something to do with the owner of the bull not being a WHR member. Which I find ridiculous because to my knowledge Irish Drovers doesn't exist anymore and the bull has been dead for over 20 years. It would be interesting to hear the ASA reason./// Agreed-yet another sanction to discredit the breed O0

 

[sue]

Many of the progeny born in 1983 are listed "active".  So what is the total number of registered shorthorns and shorthorn influenced animals in the system?  Active vs. inactive that is .

 

[Medium Rare]

I would venture to guess that it has something to do with the owner of the bull not being a WHR member. Which I find ridiculous because to my knowledge Irish Drovers doesn't exist anymore and the bull has been dead for over 20 years. It would be interesting to hear the ASA reason.

I agree, it's ridiculous.

Roughly 1/3 of my older semen inventory does not currently have epds. Those bulls have been dead for years and in many cases, so have their owners. They can't pay the annual WHR fee if they're dead. Seems like they've taken the very tool away from active paying members that they're trying to repair.

I can't believe it isn't possible to set the system so that WHR paying members in good standing can simply log in and be allowed to see ALL epds.

I couldn't help but laugh when I asked a fellow breeder about the older bulls losing their epds yesterday. He just said, "Hell, they're not right anyways. Might as well just guess." I didn't want to agree with him, but some of the older bulls perform very different than the paper would lead you to believe. Maybe we're just supposed to move on with the current bull of the month club, as angus breeders like to call it.

 

[librarian]

Wow, your right... Can't even get EPD's for Leader 21...
I can't see them for my own bull, HHFS Amos, either. His sire is also restricted, but not his grandsire - both Remitall bulls... Then they are unrestricted back thru Kelburn Great Event, Bapton, Calrossie, etc...makes research kind of difficult.

 

[RyanChandler]

One way to get around this is to look up recent progeny of the sire in question and see if it shows the sire's epds below the progeny's as it does here with this Duke of Dublin son, M BAR FLS DUKE GEORGE

 

[knabe]

perhaps the old epd's are worthless anyway?

 

[justintime]

We dissolved the Irish Drovers many years ago, but I have always had a membership... but no one in the ASA would know that I was a partner in this group. I think this is another glitch in the new system that hasn't been fixed yet. I also agree with Knabe in that the epds for some of these older bulls might not be very accurate anyways. It is going to take some time for all these issues to get corrected.

 

[beebe]

Are EPDs really that accurate now?  EPDs are based on information input, I am confident there are breeders with a high degree of integrity and that what they say is the way it is.  I am also confident that is not always the case.  I have no idea what percentage is in which camp.

 

[mark tenenbaum]

Are EPDs really that accurate now?  EPDs are based on information input, I am confident there are breeders with a high degree of integrity and that what they say is the way it is.  I am also confident that is not always the case.  I have no idea what percentage is in which camp.// Well put-and probably goes for other breeds too.I wonder if a non whr bull-which formerly had epds-magically gets them back when a whr member registers one out of him. O0

 

[librarian]

Or, why I think its useful to be able to see extinct Shorthorn EPD information whether the owner is an ASA member or WHR dues payer.

Unless we understand the algorithm generating EPD's, we can't really weigh them. I'm not aware of any place to access the mathematical way the EPD's are generated- and couldn't comprehend it anyway.
But, I can recognize patterns and compare what I see or what an old timer said they saw, to what the numbers tell me I can expect to see. Without the ability to look back at the change over time in EPD's, how does one compare the past ( however inaccurate) values to the present and future inaccuracies? It's tempting to dismiss the exercise as irrelevant, but the relevance is that EPD's are driving reasoning in commercial breeding.

If Shorthorn EPD's are a Pay to Play database, how does this influence Commercial Acceptance?
Some will say, the past doesn't matter-but with all this information technology, the pattern seems to be to erase the trail. All trails lead somewhere, even fictional numbers tell a story.

this part probably is irrelevant, unless you want insight into how really disconnected from tangibility information rumination thru computers really is.
I tried to learn what an algorithm is and ran into something called the Principle of Maximum Entropy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_maximum_entropy

In ordinary language, the principle of maximum entropy can be said to express a claim of epistemic modesty, or of maximum ignorance. The selected distribution is the one that makes the least claim to being informed beyond the stated prior data, that is to say the one that admits the most ignorance beyond the stated prior data.
Testable information
The principle of maximum entropy is useful explicitly only when applied to testable information. Testable information is a statement about a probability distribution whose truth or falsity is well-defined.


Entropy is a measure of unpredictability of information content

And on and on, until it urns out informational entropy has little in common with thermodynamic entropy, rather beautiful described as Time's Arrow
"Let us draw an arrow arbitrarily. If as we follow the arrow we find more and more of the random element in the state of the world, then the arrow is pointing towards the future; if the random element decreases the arrow points towards the past. That is the only distinction known to physics. This follows at once if our fundamental contention is admitted that the introduction of randomness is the only thing which cannot be undone. I shall use the phrase ‘time's arrow’ to express this one-way property of time which has no analogue in space."

A related mental arrow arises because one has the sense that one's perception is a continuous movement from the known (past) to the unknown (future). Anticipating the unknown forms the psychological future which always seems to be something one is moving towards, but, like a projection in a mirror, it makes what is actually already a part of memory, such as desires, dreams, and hopes, seem ahead of the observer.

 

[knabe]

management is typically more important than genetic progress with regards to generating profits.


people typically pay increasingly for diminishing returns.

 

[aj]

The chair is against the wall...............repeat..........the chair is against the wall.