Fall Club Calf Sale Season

[Dusty]

After flipping through the show circuit and looking on various websites it seems like more people than ever are raising club calves.  I'm starting to wonder if this is a bubble that is gonna burst at some point.

I think the good calves will still bring good money(25K and up type calves), however 95% of the people breeding these things need to sale the majority of their calves for 2500+ to make it work and I'm starting to wonder if we're in for a train wreck.  Combine the factors of number of calves for sale with the fact that feed is gonna be high price and that a lot of families depend on their income from a crop that is currently on track to barely outyield the corn crop of Ethiopia and I just have to wonder if this will be the year the bubble bursts??

On the flip side if someone had the money it could be a nice opportunity to pick up some quality heifers at a reasonable price if the owner is willing to let them go.  For some reason the Heat Wave heifers are always on the sale..

Thoughts?

 

[JSchroeder]

"The proliferation of publications was a classic sign of a speculative bubble." - A Random Walk Down Wall Street

 

[Dusty]

Oh and one more thing, all those hairy calf pics you see in the magazines.  None of those were taken in the last 6 weeks.  They look a little "different" now.  Let's just say it was a rough summer on the spring borns here in Iowa.

 

[chambero]

I bet that's right on the hair. 

Our local feed mill told us to be planning on $550/ton corn cake for our cows this coming winter.  That would make my custom mixed show feed around $600/ton.  If that holds true, I can't imagine what the name brand show feeds will cost per ton.  $800/ton?  Higher?

 

[Cattle Cards]

Cattle will be cheaper this fall and into the winter.  Feed prices or lack of feed in some areas will flood the market.  I do believe you'll be able to get replacement type females for very reasonable prices.  The top end will still be high.  After Jan. 1, 2013, the cost of cattle will go up as they'd all be sold off and the numbers will not be able to meet the demand.  All cattle will be higher.  So, if you can afford to feed them, this might be a good time to buy.
<cowboy>

 

[jackpotcattle]

I agree with cattle cards. There simply are not enough cattle in the country. Maybe they will start importing more, but who knows. Certainly not me!!
I think trying to sell heifer calves is going to be really tough this year. Forget about high grain prices, how about not having enough grass? One thing I try to tell people every year is that it cost the same to feed a poor one and it does a good one! Thats why I have some cows that will be going down the road and try to buy back some better younger cows.

 

[cpubarn]

I am thinking the same as the rest of you.  After last fall/winter when any cow no matter how old or broken mouthed was sky high, the lack of feed should lower prices for a while.

But  when feed returns, or if the late rains in Iowa and south provide more feed look out, up we go!  When EVERYBODY thinks the markets must go one direction, the oposite often results...

Mark