Showing cattle is a relatively small world - if we didn't go to shows where someone we knew was judging, there wouldn't be many shows we could go to, at least not anywhere near here. Yes, I know politics happen, but just as often as knowing the judge personally can help you, it can hurt you too. Many judges are more critical of their friends, because they don't want others thinking they're showing favoritism. It shouldn't make a difference - especially in showmanship. 'Most everyone I know that judges shows holds judging showmanship in high regard - they know it's all about the kids, and they try extra hard to do it right. I think that's why a lot of judges spend extra time on showmanship - they want to give each kid every chance to shine, and they often struggle with close decisions.
Along with that, I know lots of people that are confident they're going to win every time they step in the ring, and they don't mind telling you they're going to either. They're the ones that are the most fun to beat, and give you plenty of incentive to keep trying.
All that said, there is something that hasn't really been covered here yet. Your calf does have a bearing on how you do in showmanship, and not just in how they act. They need to be in the right condition - showing that you know how to feed one, and they need to be clean and free of dandruff and blemishes (warts, grubs, etc...), their hair needs to show that it's being worked, and they need to be clipped and fitted (to whatever degree is expected at that particular show) - because all that's part of presenting a show animal. Yes, I know somebody's going to say "But just because your calf looks that way doesn't mean the showman did it themselves" - and they're right, but it doesn't matter. You can't win showmanship if your calf doesn't look the part of a show calf. I'm not saying yours don't Lindsey, I'm just saying it's one more piece of the puzzle.
I know it's been mentioned here before, but the best single piece of advice I can give you is get the Stierwalt showmanship dvd. We have one, and my daughter has about worn it out. She wins showmanship contests. I'm not saying that watching that dvd is the only reason why, but it sure hasn't hurt.