Grain prices. How high will they go ?

[breyfarm]

fert as a whole should go down for next year due to supply/ demand.. with the lack of uptake this year and the failed crops to be disced under-- we won't have to use much fertilzer next year-- especially P and K.
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good point

 

[nkotb]

Fertilizer only follows supply/demand principles so long as supply is tight.  When grain is moving as much as it is, fertilizer is bound to follow to some extent, always has, always will.  I work in the agronomy industry selling inputs, and all of our fertilizer guys are saying buy now, the price is bound to go up.

 

[wiseguy]

What demand is going to be present if no one can afford to buy it? I hate to say this but I expect several producers to cut corners on fertilizer this year because it is the one thing they can skimp on. In our area we are looking at 10 bu corn and that is good compared to most places south of here that are a total loss. Corn will continue to go up, but I don't see how fertilizer can with little demand. JMO

 

[kfacres]

Fertilizer only follows supply/demand principles so long as supply is tight.  When grain is moving as much as it is, fertilizer is bound to follow to some extent, always has, always will.  I work in the agronomy industry selling inputs, and all of our fertilizer guys are saying buy now, the price is bound to go up.

coming from someone in your line of work-- I think I'll take my chance-- no offense to you.  but 99 out of 100 people are going to say that the fertilizer prices are coming down - the only person saying they're going up-- is the fertilizer salesman-- who doesn't want to not profit off of inventory on hand... 

 

[aj]

If there is no rain....the N won't leach out so alot may remain in field if the plant didn't take the nutrient up. Dang if you have 10$ corn and you try and raise it next year I would think people would put a pencil to trying to obtain maximun yields.......if it would start raining.

 

[breyfarm]

What demand is going to be present if no one can afford to buy it? I hate to say this but I expect several producers to cut corners on fertilizer this year because it is the one thing they can skimp on. In our area we are looking at 10 bu corn and that is good compared to most places south of here that are a total loss. Corn will continue to go up, but I don't see how fertilizer can with little demand. JMO

90% of farmers these days have crop insurance though, they aren't going to go broke this year, maybe break even or little better if they have crop insurance, thats what its for, for years like this. And its your own fault if you dont carry it.

 

[nkotb]

Fertilizer only follows supply/demand principles so long as supply is tight.  When grain is moving as much as it is, fertilizer is bound to follow to some extent, always has, always will.  I work in the agronomy industry selling inputs, and all of our fertilizer guys are saying buy now, the price is bound to go up.

coming from someone in your line of work-- I think I'll take my chance-- no offense to you.  but 99 out of 100 people are going to say that the fertilizer prices are coming down - the only person saying they're going up-- is the fertilizer salesman-- who doesn't want to not profit off of inventory on hand... 

Nitrogen went up today, what do you know.  I realize in my line of work, that me saying the price will move may not mean much to some of you, however, what will I gain from posting that on this site?  I don't sell any fertilizer to any of you, nor do I plan to.  As far as 99/100 saying fertilizer is coming down, you must be talking to the wrong 99 people.

 

[comercialfarmer]

Fertilizer only follows supply/demand principles so long as supply is tight.  When grain is moving as much as it is, fertilizer is bound to follow to some extent, always has, always will.  I work in the agronomy industry selling inputs, and all of our fertilizer guys are saying buy now, the price is bound to go up.

coming from someone in your line of work-- I think I'll take my chance-- no offense to you.  but 99 out of 100 people are going to say that the fertilizer prices are coming down - the only person saying they're going up-- is the fertilizer salesman-- who doesn't want to not profit off of inventory on hand... 

Nitrogen went up today, what do you know.  I realize in my line of work, that me saying the price will move may not mean much to some of you, however, what will I gain from posting that on this site?  I don't sell any fertilizer to any of you, nor do I plan to.  As far as 99/100 saying fertilizer is coming down, you must be talking to the wrong 99 people.

I'm not involved in selling it, but have been of the same impression.  Seems to me that as grain prices rise, producers around the world have justification in increased inputs.  It isn't just corn.  Everything gets affected.  And it isn't just here.  Fertilizer is a global commodity. 

It just makes sense that I can spend more $ to gamble on raising more bushels of $9 wheat vs $4 wheat, so I use more fertilizer.  So does the guy raising soy beans, milo, etc....  When feed cost's are up, grass is more valuable as well.  Takes fertilizer to grow that as well. 

And lastly, if the market behaves in a predictable fashion, don't you think that hedgers are going to react to it.  If they expect the cost to rise, won't they purchase more in that anticipation.  When they pull more off the open market, that will drive the price up. 

I stopped trying to figure out what the real world application will be and try to read what the emotional reaction will be by the players. 

 

[nate53]

If the weather situation doesn't change alot before next planting season, I would say prices will drop as far as inputs.  But if the midwest gets much needed rain or snow and subsoils get replenished - watchout.  If things look wetter by next spring I would say almost every grain farmer will be trying to make the most out of every acre they got (this will entail not cutting back on fertilizer, nitrogen, other inputs).  The real dry places might cut back on fertilizer to a degree but definitelly not on Nitrogen (I was always told it takes two things to grow corn - nitrogen and of course water). If things look up come spring time with high crop values wouldn't you try and raise every bushel you could?    A lot of things are hinging on the weather between now and 2013 planting season.  Personally I'm more worried about next year than this year (I sure hope it rains or snows substantially).  JMO

Commercial Farmer:  I agree.  but how many people in the commodity market or futures saw this drought train coming thru this fall?

 

[comercialfarmer]

If the weather situation doesn't change alot before next planting season, I would say prices will drop as far as inputs.  But if the midwest gets much needed rain or snow and subsoils get replenished - watchout.  If things look wetter by next spring I would say almost every grain farmer will be trying to make the most out of every acre they got (this will entail not cutting back on fertilizer, nitrogen, other inputs).  The real dry places might cut back on fertilizer to a degree but definitelly not on Nitrogen (I was always told it takes two things to grow corn - nitrogen and of course water). If things look up come spring time with high crop values wouldn't you try and raise every bushel you could?    A lot of things are hinging on the weather between now and 2013 planting season.  Personally I'm more worried about next year than this year (I sure hope it rains or snows substantially).  JMO

Commercial Farmer:  I agree.  but how many people in the commodity market or futures saw this drought train coming thru this fall?

I don't know, but it wasn't a surprise here.  We had the same thing last year and they predicted at least 2 years of it with an El Nino weather pattern. 

The thing I see is that with our current changes in many of the 3rd world countries (many becoming bigger players) and competition for all commodities, I think any hit on agriculture will have more dramatic effects than what has been experienced in the past. 

A little ripple has a bigger chance of becoming a wave, at least that's my take on it all.  Cortisol levels are high these days. 

 

[nate53]

If the weather situation doesn't change alot before next planting season, I would say prices will drop as far as inputs.  But if the midwest gets much needed rain or snow and subsoils get replenished - watchout.  If things look wetter by next spring I would say almost every grain farmer will be trying to make the most out of every acre they got (this will entail not cutting back on fertilizer, nitrogen, other inputs).  The real dry places might cut back on fertilizer to a degree but definitelly not on Nitrogen (I was always told it takes two things to grow corn - nitrogen and of course water). If things look up come spring time with high crop values wouldn't you try and raise every bushel you could?    A lot of things are hinging on the weather between now and 2013 planting season.  Personally I'm more worried about next year than this year (I sure hope it rains or snows substantially).  JMO

Commercial Farmer:  I agree.  but how many people in the commodity market or futures saw this drought train coming thru this fall?

I don't know, but it wasn't a surprise here.  We had the same thing last year and they predicted at least 2 years of it with an El Nino weather pattern. 

The thing I see is that with our current changes in many of the 3rd world countries (many becoming bigger players) and competition for all commodities, I think any hit on agriculture will have more dramatic effects than what has been experienced in the past. 

A little ripple has a bigger chance of becoming a wave, at least that's my take on it all.  Cortisol levels are high these days. 

  It didn't rain here much from first part of July 2011 till Nov. (the grass just went dormant), I'm hoping that doesn't happen again but it's looking like it will.  I guess the surprise for me is the size of the drought area, I don't think many thought it would affect production as a whole as much as it has, because few thought it would cover this much area.  The experts were calling a record harvest for corn up until June (things looked good).  We had 3 extremely wet years in a row, I'm hoping and praying the dry year streak stops at two?  It'll be what It'll be though! ;D