Opinions on herd numbers in the US

[mainecattlemother]

If I am correct, government reports are showing low numbers of cattle throughout the US due to drought the last couple of years.  I have some friends that just got back from the Western US. They drove from Minnesota to California going through several western states on their annual round trip driving adventure.  They stated that farms that they had seen in the past now have cattle that they did see before.  They saw this in several locations.  What are your opinions on our numbers in the US?  We are planning on downsizing our herd due to lack of feed and we know of several people that have done the same.  What is going on?

 

[mccannfarms]

MO, OK, and TX; 3 of the largest cow/calf states in the country all have severely downsized which in and of itself would play a huge impact on the nations cow numbers.

 

[Limiman12]

It takes a lot of hobby farms with a couple dozen cows to make up for one guy that made his living as a cow calf man.....  Herd might be more spread out, but there have been a TON of cows pounded out in the past two years around here and we are not even in the worst of the drought.....

 

[nkotb]

In our part of the world we are seeing a lot of "farms" that have never had cattle before, but it's because the cattlemen are sticking cattle in every nook and cranny they can just to try to hold on to as many as possible.  Most CRP fields, cornstalks, milo stalks, and whatever else we can get cattle on we are.

 

[DLD]

At the sale barn I work at in western OK, calf sales are averaging quite a bit less than half of what they were prior to the last 2 years. Smaller sale barns all over western Oklahoma and west Texas have closed altogether or gone to every other week (rather than every week) and/or some sort of seasonal schedule where they're closed for weeks at a time.  That should give you some idea of how far down cow numbers are.  The bigger sales are impacted too, but as long as there's demand they'll have cattle to sell, no matter how far away they have to come from.

I hadn't really thought about it before, but I think what nkotb and limiman12 are saying goes here too.  What cattle there are left are spread out alot more over the past couple of years.

 

[leanbeef]

We are planning on downsizing our herd due to lack of feed and we know of several people that have done the same.  What is going on?

Yes...I believe national cow numbers are the lowest they've been since around the 1950s. You can only manage what you have the resources to manage, so you gotta do what you gotta do. From a business or production standpoint, though, now is not a great time to downsize your operation. Each cow is a part of a factory converting forage to beef. When the number of "factories" is at a low point and the price and demand for your product reach an all time high, that's not when you want to cut production! It's not necessarily the best time to go out and buy a bunch of cows to increase herd size or start a herd unless you can find some good cows for a reasonable price tag, but the folks who have the resources to manage what they have or who can find a way to grow their herds without unmanageable costs of input should be sitting pretty for a while. Especially given the environmental factors that have been hard on certain parts of the US that are historically important for cattle production, it could take a few years before our supply exceeds the demand again. As producers, I think we have to do the best job we can to manage what we have and to not forget about quality of our product and the other factors that help maintain or increase demand.

 

[creativecattle]

We are thinking along the lines of lean beef. Focus on keeping good quality, and slight growth (we aren't huge to begin with by any means). However, we feel that if we can stay in there will be huge opportunity. I am also a pretty optimistic person by nature

 

[Limiman12]

Our herd will be growing in the next couple years.....  Five of seven calves born have been heifers......    Of course, 2-3 of the non aied with sexed semen were bulls.  We aied all eighteen heifers last year 12 to sexed heifer semen, hoping for a good crop of heifer to make up for last years mess with open cows due to heat two years ago....