Our 2008 Carcass Data

[knabe]

so some will exit the market (people) on both sides of the equation, until profit can reenter, that is unless we start subsidizing loss.

 

[aj]

I've heard the 200$ loss also.

 

[chambero]

I've always heard that once you go in with feedlot cattle, you can't really afford to "get out" due to tax implications, etc.  Feedlots can't just shut down till prices change.  I don't know what those guys are going to do.  Cow/calf operators can't just "stop" either.  I expect much higher prices in the grocery store are on the way before too long.  Kind of like gas, people aren't going to quit eating either.

I vaguely remember inflation in the 70s, but I wonder if we are headed there in a hurry.  How did we get out of that cycle back then?

 

[knabe]

i made about 18% interest on my money market account back then.  it paid for college.  inflation simply reallocates assets, readjusts inputs, relocates assets.  perhaps offshoring won't happen as much.  at some point, manufacturing everything in china will have a cost.  though that's one reason the dollar is weakening, which is a way china is extracting a profit on both ends, one of which is financing our debt.  when they quit doing that, just wait for another adjustment.  the developement life cycle, the job life cycle is getting shorter and shorter.  what many saw in a lifetime, people will begin to see in cycles every 5 years or even less.  maintaining liquidity, and flexibility will be rewarded.  cellulose will become king with cattle.  maybe goats will replace them.  therre's less body mass to get rid of water for the amount of meat recovered.  plus they eat a more diverse diet, and lower quality diet as well and will survive.  the more you are in debt, the less flexibility you have.  SRU can probably explain how we have recalculated our debt, inflation etc, to disguise our vulnerability.  pretty scary.  i'm not worried about inflation.

 

[shorthorns r us]

the problem is all the things that are not considered in the national debt number that is much heralded by the media.

some of the more elementary principles of international finance, which many perceive as harmful to the US at this time, lead to circumstances that will be a boon to our economy in a few years; keep in mind economics is viewed in a vacuum, other events and regulatory actions can exert pressures that may skew the result.  anyone want to wager on whether or not a politician tries to take credit for any of those things in about 2011 or 2012.

 

[knabe]

here's a wager.  well not really since i'm not betting yet

what bull will be 10x his current value in two years, and not because he died, quit producing.