Grain prices. How high will they go ?

[johnmetzger]

Here in Ohio corn hit $8.10 bu. with beans over $16.00. Where will it top out at ?

 

[kfacres]

if the drought is as serious as it's believed to be-- I'm thinking double what it is now.  20-50 bushel corn in prime corn land of IL will really put the stomp down.

I'm thinking about buying several 100 bushel just to have. 

 

[Angusboy]

Here in south central Iowa if we don't get rain within 2 weeks all our crops.. won't be crops

 

[aj]

There is a wreck coming. I am told that wet distillers wil be available only for the biggest and best customers cause of shortages. Cattle feeders are limit down. How in the world will feedlots cope. It almost seems like to me that there will be less corn run through an increased number of cattle...period. I don't think beef customers will accept much of an increase in cost of meats. Seems like to me that cost of gains can only go so high in feedlots....if that means severely cutting corn....that is what it is.

 

[knabe]

What about ethanol?

 

[Angusboy]

ethanol plants here are shutting down

 

[nate53]

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do;jsessionid=369C2874D4461ACC25681644DBC3B972.agfreejvm2?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=grainmarkets&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3865298c013890a4abc401d0

Where will it top out at?  Above where it is now!   Personally I think we are within $2 of the high now for corn?  Some people had $5 corn sold for this fall and now they might not raise it?  Things are going to reach a point where a lot of rationing is going to happen from all sides.  Corn has wheat as a partial backup for feed and wheat supplies are good (presently).  A lot of silage will be chopped and fed this year which should really help cattle, (hogs and poultry have less options).  A lot of weather premium has already been added to the market but more will probably be added into early fall (where there will be a clearer picture of where everything stands).  Will they still export corn if barges can't make it down the Mississippi to the Gulf?  Ethanol plants are already talking about shutting down or minimizing production for the forseeable future.  

Last year cattle migrated to greener pastures, this year cattle look to migrate to drought areas where the silage piles are (unless some get hauled north of the border)?  More culling of the nations cow herd for sure (hogs too for that matter).  Is there enough cows in the country to eat as much silage as could be cut (I'm thinking not).  Hopefully things work out better than everyone thinks. :-\

 

[knabe]

ethanol plants here are shutting down

Shouldn't we bail them out somehow?

 

[kfacres]

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do;jsessionid=369C2874D4461ACC25681644DBC3B972.agfreejvm2?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=grainmarkets&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3865298c013890a4abc401d0

Where will it top out at?  Above where it is now!   Personally I think we are within $2 of the high now for corn?  Some people had $5 corn sold for this fall and now they might not raise it?  Things are going to reach a point where a lot of rationing is going to happen from all sides.  Corn has wheat as a partial backup for feed and wheat supplies are good (presently).  A lot of silage will be chopped and fed this year which should really help cattle, (hogs and poultry have less options).  A lot of weather premium has already been added to the market but more will probably be added into early fall (where there will be a clearer picture of where everything stands).  Will they still export corn if barges can't make it down the Mississippi to the Gulf?  Ethanol plants are already talking about shutting down or minimizing production for the forseeable future.  

Last year cattle migrated to greener pastures, this year cattle look to migrate to drought areas where the silage piles are (unless some get hauled north of the border)?  More culling of the nations cow herd for sure (hogs too for that matter).  Is there enough cows in the country to eat as much silage as could be cut (I'm thinking not).  Hopefully things work out better than everyone thinks. :-\

I think you're right.. alot of that silage will get bushhogged and left standing...  i know many who dont' have cows.. i sure wish I had the facilities-- or atleast the a new place... I'd be all over the silage deal.

 

[aj]

The wet distillers comes from ethanol plants. They could jack up there distillers a little to help out. Silage is damn near impossible to haul very far isn't it......because its a high % water.

 

[aj]

What will silage be worth? Silage withou corn in it? High nitrate silage?

 

[nate53]

It would be much more economical to move cows than move silage, it's possible to move it just not practical.  Corn silage either needs to be fed with in a few hours of cutting or put in a silo or bunker to ferment and then fed.  Some producers won't want to chop silage because they don't have cows, cutting silage removes a lot of fertilizer, they'll just take the insurance check and be done (if they have insurance?).  Distillers have jumped through the roof along with corn prices. 

 

[Angusboy]

ethanol plants here are shutting down

Shouldn't we bail them out somehow?

i dont know how we can

 

[aj]

My feedguy told me that the little creep pellets they sell around here will go up cause wheat mids going up.

 

[nkotb]

Our grain buyer is saying $10 corn minimum, local ethanol plant talking of shutting down for a couple months, and not contracting anymore distillers.  Ethanol plant said they could shutdown, sell the grain back that they already have bought, and make more money that way.  Interesting side note, the local ethanol plant is trying to go all milo, as the government will give them an additional $0.50/gal because supposedly it is more renewable than corn ethanol.  They are also putting in a very large methane digester to power the ethanol plant, construction is only maybe 1/2 done.

 

[showsteerdlux]

Our grain buyer is saying $10 corn minimum, local ethanol plant talking of shutting down for a couple months, and not contracting anymore distillers.  Ethanol plant said they could shutdown, sell the grain back that they already have bought, and make more money that way.  Interesting side note, the local ethanol plant is trying to go all milo, as the government will give them an additional $0.50/gal because supposedly it is more renewable than corn ethanol.  They are also putting in a very large methane digester to power the ethanol plant, construction is only maybe 1/2 done.

Ditto on $10 corn. I work in the turkey industry and we are looking at $10 corn and $20 beans within 3 months. Looks like we'll have to pay to play for awhile again. Bad part about it is only 2 months ago the production meetings were focused on what was looking to be a great grain harvest this year. So much for that.

 

[aj]

We have a fairly local milo ethanol plant that paid for the milo seed of any local farmer who planted milo.....this was up to certain dollar amount only. Milo seed is a fairly low amount of the cost of putting milo in but still real interesting.....no contracts or ties to bring milo there.....just plant milo. Most elevator milo ended up there anyway.

 

[nkotb]

AJ, we are talking about the same ethanol plant, as I live in Quinter.  It looked like to me the only thing them paying for milo seed to push production was get milo planted on some marginal acres, or acres that were going to be fallowed for wheat, but instead got planted to milo. 

 

[breyfarm]

Im being told to buy nitrogen right now for $295 a ton, because they believe it will go up from corn prices going up. If ethanol plants shut down, wont that have a little affect on the price going back down and not up? Any ideas on that.

 

[kfacres]

fert as a whole should go down for next year due to supply/ demand.. with the lack of uptake this year and the failed crops to be disced under-- we won't have to use much fertilzer next year-- especially P and K.