JDMC ROYAL COMMANDO 3Y Discussing pedigrees

[huntaway]

I'm not sure there would have been any transfer of data between Australia and America in the old system because there wouldn't have been strong enough links between the two populations. New Zealand and Australia are run together but the UK are separate.

Although they are using the same data to find the same answer there seems to be quite a difference in how they do it. Looking at how accuracies are calculated seems to be a big difference. If I submit data for a trait on an animal it will come back with an accuracy around 50% +/- abit for the amount of background data there is. Once the animal has some data from progeny it goes up to around 70%, when it is above 90% it is considered high accuracy. For growth figures to be published they need to be above 50% and carcass above 40% so in most situations if you don't record for a trait they wont have publishable numbers. Because of the high correlation between growth traits recording one BWT, 200,400 or 600 will be enough to get all above that level.

I think the amount of data collected here might also be a big difference especially carcass data. Bulls like JR legend and The grove kookaburra have had half of there progeny carcass scanned. The proportion scanned would have lifted over the past 5 years as more people are scanning heifers and more of there bulls.

HS Rodeo Drive may show this difference the best. for marbling in America he is in the top 10% down here he is in the bottom 10% but they are similar for the growth traits which I would think are better recorded up there.

 

[Duncraggan]

Here in South Africa we have centralized growth tests (Phase C) where your bulls go to an official bull testing station where they are tested under standardized conditions. Seems like the Canadians have a similar system, in fact, our feed dispensing/measuring equipment comes from there. Your bulls are no longer on your property and you can't influence the data!

Not to bring the other societies down, as they may have a similar system, I just don't know about it.

As far as BW and CE go, you need to trust your bull breeder and trust that his integrity is beyond reproach!

X-bar, your scenarios of sophisticated collusion make me shudder, unfortunately, the ultimate loser is the breed!

 

[librarian]

Okotpks-"He suggested AI breeding to some bulls with higher accuracy to get some connectivity between our herd and the one's that already had more data in order to increase the accuracy of our numbers."...
Seems like in this global information age we ought to be able to AI to Australian bulls and merge the performance data of the progeny with Breedplan data. Then reference Breedplan numbers.
To build an International Shorthorn database on one standardized platform ( Breedplan) might jumpstart the North American commercial engine. Outcrossing and recrossing our most functional cow strains to high accuracy Australian bulls could produce some very resilient blends with real numbers bred into them

 

[trevorgreycattleco]

The problem is that at least for the carcass traits we as a breed need to make a high accuracy reference sire first.

I think this is the underlying issue with Shorthorn EPDs in general.  The legitimacy of the EPDs of many of the 'reference sires' is suspect at best (who/what was their performance originally benchmarked against? )

Besides the promotion of mongrels as seed stock,  the second most troubling occurrence is the promotion of a bull as 'proven' when he may have only sired a hundred calves.  Even a couple hundred calves is NOTHING in terms of validating a bull as a benchmark reference for the entire breed!!! So not only are the EPDS of these reference sires themselves suspect, but now the EPDS of these 'proven' : reference sires are being used as an index to evaluate the performance of other bulls??? You haaaaaave got to be kidding me. 

With the limited use of shorthorn bulls, there is no check and balance.  We have breeders using these 'reference sires' not because they know the reference's  EPDs accurately reflect their true performance, but rather because they know the reference's EPDs are overinflated to the point that they feel with certainty their walking bull can easily outperform them.  You see this approach used by those who are just too honest  : to blatantly falsify the performance with their contemporary groups.  Many others just rely on the tried and true approach of simply lying and burying the references sires' calves in the very bottom of their contemporary group. 
Wildly enough, with the new database showing the (stated) performance of all calves in each reported contemporary groups, you would amazed at how often I come across the latter approach being implemented.

  In other breeds, by virtue of many many breeders having access and using the same bulls, these questionable breeders and their practices are exposed when other breeders submit progeny data that glaringly conflicts with their reportings.    In shorthorns, all you need to do is find you a buddy breeder that'll collude with you, and the next thing you know you've got "the #1 blah blah bull in the breed."  It's a win win for the shady:  they get to say their bull is whatever they want, and because the bulls not available on the open market, there's no one who can ever contest the claims.  Even better is that once they engineer their bull's EPD's to where they want them, the bull will suddenly die  : and then they'll use him AI as a reference sire for their next bull.  Occasionally, you'll see semen on that bull consigned to a sale but, in order to prevent any honest progeny reporting going forward, the shady bastards will collude with a pre determined 'buyer' who they know will not only run the price of the semen up far above any reasonable market value, but who'll also "buy into the exclusive offer' and play their game. 

At this point I don't know what the solution is.  We need a way to set the cheap talk and manipulated numbers aside so that we can objectively identify the most superior cattle.   







Best thing I've read on here in forever.

 

[librarian]

XBAR'S scenario is pretty much exactly the story I hear from the Angus Underground breeders who have become disgusted with what they call the Angus Mafia. These are guys who follow the Shoshone path of functional linebreeding.
So, it's kind of neat that the ASA Shorthorn epds can be disregarded and we can start to build something legitimately based on predictable performance instead of performance predictions.
You guys have all the tools to develop the best Shorthorn population that has ever existed.
Segregating the profitable beef production utility of the existing Americana herds into factual and fictional categories should be pretty easy. Work within the factual functional gene pool and expand that population.
Unfortunately, everything outside that population should be considered extinct for commercial purposes. Just show biz and irrelevant, even if the irrelevant population is the majority of the breed.
But, Genetic Drift can work for or against a small founder population.