How will tough times affect beef

[aj]

What kind of effect will the economy have on the beef industry. Is beef a luxury food? I'm a little spooked. There have been some loses in the feedlots of 300$ a head. Beef demand is down. Hopefully it won't hurt the club calf deal but I think this economy is getting scarier. Everthing is tied together. I don't think the dems have a clue how bussinesses are run and how stimulus packages should be put together. I am thinking feeder calf prices will be low next fall if any of the feedlots last that long. What say you|?

 

[ROAD WARRIOR]

The one thing we have going for us in the beef industry is that the beef herd inventories are at 1950's lows. In the long term this will help us survive the crunch in the economy. The tough part will be getting through the government dairy buy out as they dump thousands of cows on the market to directly compete with our beef. Hamburger is a cheap meal and I don't see people quitting a good cheap meal. Our challenge may be to get the fast food industry to use domestic beef instead of imported (same old song and dance here). I think it will get worse before it gets better. RW

 

[Show Dad]

Not to scare anyone BUT (and that is as big a but as any grand champion steer's butt), if they do this global warming tax, there will be a constriction in the beef industry like you have never seen before.

California is the place to watch. They have all the big government programs going for years and look at them now. BANKRUPT! Remember the saying, "As goes California so goes the America."

Just my opinion.

 

[knabe]

so nice of you guys to help us out with your tax dollars.  thanks.

 

[cowz]

Did you know that here in Little California....ooops...I mean Colorado, the one industry that has totally taken off is COOKING CLASSES!!! 

The "Haves" are suddenly the "Have Nots"....with the rest of us!  I am not picking on young folks, but my 18 year old son is honestly a better cook than any of the girls he knows.  We have as a country, not taught our young people how to cook from scratch.  I hired a newly wed, new college grad several years ago, who told me where they went out to eat each night.  It wasnt long before a couple with no kids, both working both needed raises to keep up with their eating out lifestyle.  (I told her that raises were given for performance, not based on her eating habits.) arrgh

If you have ever listened to Dave Ramsey or Suzie Orman their financial advise for cutting personal expenses is to stay out of the bars and restaurants!

While this is bad for "chi chi" restaurants, it is still good for the grocers.  If you are just learning to cook, it is a no brainer to learn to make a beef roast or grill a steak or make endless hamburger dishes for a family.  Honestly, if you take a family of 4 out to eat at a sit down place, you are being frugal to get out for less than $45.  You can still buy $45 worth of meat and make supper for a week with that!  Most people get really tired of chicken every night! 

So teach somebody to cook beef!

 

[dori36]

Not to scare anyone BUT (and that is as big a but as any grand champion steer's butt), if they do this global warming tax, there will be a constriction in the beef industry like you have never seen before.

California is the place to watch. They have all the big government programs going for years and look at them now. BANKRUPT! Remember the saying, "As goes California so goes the America."

Just my opinion.

When I was growing up in GM Town, Flint, MI, the saying was "As goes GM, so goes the country".  I've heard that for as long as I can remember.  I don't need to remind anyone where GM is heading.  The whole economy is just plain scary and the decision makers, Republicans and Democrats, are in uncharted waters.  No one remembers the Great Depression from an adult point of view nor the debates on the way to the FDR programs. Everyone's just guessing what will bring stability to the economy.  Trial and error (lots of 'em), really. I have a live Commodities market widget on my computer desktop and right now, Feeders are down .875 at 90.75 and Feds (Live) are down .30 at 80.95.  I know, this isn't the live market, but it's a good indicator of what's to follow in in the feedlots.  Not good.

 

[knabe]

the economy is just like a garage sale. 

if the government allows you to buy something at a garage sale for more than twice it's value with only interest payments, prices will inflate.

if they then subsidize the price by not allowing the item to reflect it's true cost between the buyer and the seller, then transactions slow down.

houses are not an asset regardless of what one's accountant says.  they generate no revenue until sold.  the government allowed it's use as a financial vehicle.  by increasing capital gains, they artificially inflated the cost of the house by the cost of the capital gain, plus probably some amount of limiting supply.

one should have to sell their house to get money out of it when they no longer need a big house, and they shouldn't be penalized for capital gains.  penalizing them only puts housing further out of reach of the poor, who the government seems hell bent on increasing with every policy they interfere with.  changing the rules creates vacuums of adjustment and are used as a vehicle to create money out of nothing by the people who write the rules, further placing pressure on profits.

think of the stimulation to the economy (and government coffers) if they would just eliminate the death tax and capital gains.  but of course they won't, all they'll do is trot out some more poor people with their constant class warfare lies.

congress is stupid.

 

[LN]

Another good indicator is the price spread between Choice and Select. I read that right now it is $8/cwt and in good economic times it can be double or triple that.

 

[knabe]

i went in to work a little later than usual today, as i usually go in early.  the absence of traffic was disturbingly eerie.

 

[clubcalve]

What kind of effect will the economy have on the beef industry. Is beef a luxury food? I'm a little spooked. There have been some loses in the feedlots of 300$ a head. Beef demand is down. Hopefully it won't hurt the club calf deal but I think this economy is getting scarier. Everthing is tied together. I don't think the dems have a clue how bussinesses are run and how stimulus packages should be put together. I am thinking feeder calf prices will be low next fall if any of the feedlots last that long. What say you|?

I think that we are going to see a lot more of people raising their own calves and not buying them for so much$$$$$$$ (lol)

 

[aj]

I think corn will be cheap so thats a plus(I guess). I remember my grandad told me a story. It was in the 30's and no one had any money. He had nothing to feed his sows so he hauled them to the salebarn,unhooked his trailer. He unloaded 8 sows. He went down to get parts for his tractor and whatnot and got back late. He had 15 sows in his trailer. No one wanted them nor had anything to feed them so they gave em to him. I just hope it doesn't get that bad. ;D

 

[simtal]

Another good indicator is the price spread between Choice and Select. I read that right now it is $8/cwt and in good economic times it can be double or triple that.

Its actually less than that.  $4 as of today.

There have been some loses in the feedlots of 300$ a head. Beef demand is down. Hopefully it won't hurt the club calf deal but I think this economy is getting scarier. I am thinking feeder calf prices will be low next fall if any of the feedlots last that long. What say you|?

From what I've been told, many feeders are losing money because they didn't think they needed to hedge their cattle.  And why should that have; lower corn prices and lower cattle numbers sounded like a great idea.

 

[box6rranch]

Did you know that here in Little California....ooops...I mean Colorado, the one industry that has totally taken off is COOKING CLASSES!!!   

The "Haves" are suddenly the "Have Nots"....with the rest of us!  I am not picking on young folks, but my 18 year old son is honestly a better cook than any of the girls he knows.  We have as a country, not taught our young people how to cook from scratch.  I hired a newly wed, new college grad several years ago, who told me where they went out to eat each night.  It wasnt long before a couple with no kids, both working both needed raises to keep up with their eating out lifestyle.  (I told her that raises were given for performance, not based on her eating habits.) arrgh

If you have ever listened to Dave Ramsey or Suzie Orman their financial advise for cutting personal expenses is to stay out of the bars and restaurants!

While this is bad for "chi chi" restaurants, it is still good for the grocers.  If you are just learning to cook, it is a no brainer to learn to make a beef roast or grill a steak or make endless hamburger dishes for a family.  Honestly, if you take a family of 4 out to eat at a sit down place, you are being frugal to get out for less than $45.  You can still buy $45 worth of meat and make supper for a week with that!  Most people get really tired of chicken every night! 

So teach somebody to cook beef!

Are you really in Colorado? What part? I didn't realize there was anyone else on SP from here.

 

[red]

Are you really in Colorado? What part? I didn't realize there was anyone else on SP from here.

Frostback is from there too. check the member's map & you'll find more.

Red

 

[box6rranch]

Duh, sometimes the obvious escapes me ))

 

[ELBEE]

My prediction; $2000 cow\calf pairs Spring 2010, and $1.75 #500-#600 calves off cows Fall 2010. If we can hang on 12-18 months, "Nellie bar the door".

 

[aj]

Come on now. ;D

 

[kanshow]

Elbee has it all figured out!!    I'm glad I live in his neck of the woods!!

 

[justintime]

I am hoping Elbee is right. Last fall, I was talking with an Alberta cattlemen who has 2500 cows and feeds 40,000 - 50,000 head a year ( so he knows this business very well) and he was predicting that we would see $1000 feeder calves by the fall of 2010. He feels that the North American cow numbers are even lower than what the stats show. Just yesterday, I heard a blurp on an ag show which said that cow numbers in Canada and the US are the lowest since 1961. We all know that there are many more mouths to feed  here than there was almost 50 years ago.

The recession we are now experiencing is probably going to delay his prediction, and it will probably result in the cow numbers going even lower than they are now. I have never heard so many long time cattlemen in my area saying that if they don't see any improvements by the fall of 09, they are going to sell off their herds and just take whatever they can get. They have been losing money for years , or at best just treading water an holding their own, and they are getting very tired of working hard and seeing no compensation for their efforts. This should only mean good times for those that can hold on.... but the critical question is how do you continue to hold on when it appears the ship is continuing to slowly sink!

 

[ELBEE]

Your "blurp" is about two weeks old. Today we're at 1953 inventory numbers and falling at about three years per week. I don't think even a dairy buyout will put this thing off long!

Once the feed lots cycle current inventory contracts through, there aren't many cattle to put back in. What does cheap corn equal????

Out here in the middle of cattle country there is literally a pile of corn in every little town. And there is by no means over stocked grass.

How many of you'all are investing in stock (both kinds) now??? Why is it human nature is to forget/ignore the most obvious???